二人谈：巴基斯坦与去美元化：前景与危机

　　二人谈：巴基斯坦与去美元化：前景与危机

　　AConversation betweenTwoPeople：

　　Pakistan & De-dollarization: Prospects and Crisis

　　本期主持人安高乐 四川师范大学华西边疆研究所副教授

　　Host of this issue An Gaole is Associate Professor at the Institute of West China Frontier Studies, Sichuan Normal University

　　萨尔曼·艾哈迈德·拉利 Salman Ahmad Lali

　　萨尔曼·艾哈迈德·拉利，来自巴基斯坦的记者，专注于国防、国际战略事务和经济领域。凭借在巴基斯坦多家新闻电视台的工作经验，他对全球权力动态有着深刻的理解。

　　Salman Ahmad Lali, a journalist hailing from Pakistan, has built a career in media by focusing on defence, international & strategic affairs, and economics. With experience spanning multiple news TV stations in Pakistan, he has cultivated a deep understanding of global power dynamics.

　　孙力舟 Sun Lizhou

　　孙力舟，来自中国新疆的学者，西南政法大学新闻传播学院教师，北京大学国际关系学院博士，北京大学中外人文交流研究基地兼职研究员，万邦图志区域国别学苑副院长，主要研究“一带一路”。

　　Sun Lizhou, a scholar from Xinjiang, China; teacher in school of Journalism and Communication, Southwest University of Political Science and Law; PhD in School of International Studies, Peking University; Non-Resident Fellow, Institute of Global Cooperation and Understanding, Peking University; Deputy Director of Warm Boon Institute of Global Studies, China. His research focus is the Belt and Road Initiative.

　　主持人：近日，世界上“去美元化”的呼声不断高涨。正在访华的巴西总统卢拉呼吁金砖国家用本币结算。刚刚结束访华行程的马来西亚总理安瓦尔也宣称，他在中国访问时公开提出成立“亚洲货币基金组织。这次学者的对话的主题就是，巴基斯坦对去美元化的前景有何看法？

　　Host：Recently, the call for de-dollarization echoes in many countries in the world. Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva advised The BRICS countries settle their transactions in their local currency.Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar, who has just concluded his visit to China,The theme of this scholarly conversation is, publicly proposed the establishment of the Asian Monetary Fund during his visit to China.As what is Pakistan's reaction to this?

　　萨尔曼·艾哈迈德·拉利:谢谢主持人，提出这个问题也算是我们跨国界学者的一种交流吧。 巴基斯坦已经注意到去美元化的趋势及其背后的逻辑。东欧地区长达一年的冲突导致了经济、地缘政治和文化领域的重大变化。一个值得注意的结果是推动多极化的进程，这是一个将全球经济力量重新分配给多个发达经济体的过程，而不是将其集中在一个霸权国家——美国的手中。

　　Salman Ahmad Lali：Thank you very much! Raising this question is also a kind of communication among scholars across national boundaries.The year-long conflict between in Eastern Europe has resulted in significant shifts in the economic, geopolitical, and cultural spheres. One notable consequence is the push towards multipolarity, a process that redistributes global economic power among multiple advanced economies, rather than concentrating it in the hands of a single hegemonic power - the United States.

　　主持人：也就是说不少国家对去美元化有一种取向，是吗？

　　Host: So many countries have a preference for de-dollarization, right?

　　萨尔曼·艾哈迈德·拉利: 是的。因此，去美元化已成为一种全球趋势，从印度到阿根廷、从巴西到南非、从中东到东南亚的国家都在努力尽量减少它们对美元的依赖。巴基斯坦在国际贸易、偿还债务和外国投资方面严重依赖美元，通过去美元化，巴基斯坦可以将鸡蛋装在多个篮子里，避免因单一盯住某种货币而减小经济风险。然而，由于美元在国际上所具有的强势地位，去美元化也带来了一些必须小心处理的挑战。

　　Salman Ahmad Lali：OK！The year-long conflict between in Eastern Europe has resulted in significant shifts in the economic, geopolitical, and cultural spheres. One notable consequence is the push towards multipolarity, a process that redistributes global economic power among multiple advanced economies, rather than concentrating it in the hands of a single hegemonic power - the United States. As a result, de-dollarization has emerged as a global trend, with countries from India to Argentina, Brazil to South Africa, and the Middle East to Southeast Asia striving to minimize their dependence on the US dollar. Pakistan, which relies heavily on the US dollar for international trade, debt repayment, and foreign investment, could benefit from this trend. However, de-dollarization also presents several challenges that must be carefully navigated.

　　孙力舟：最近几个月，新闻中经常出现巴基斯坦陷入经济危机的消息，包括货币贬值，通货膨胀，外汇储备几乎耗尽等等。这些情况与美国的影响，应该是有关联的。

　　Sun Lizhou:In recent months, Pakistan's economic crisis has been on the news, including currency depreciation, inflation, depletion of foreign exchange reserves, and more. The emergence of these conditions should be related to the influence of the United States.

　　萨尔曼·艾哈迈德·拉利: 是的。巴基斯坦的经济脆弱性源于其受到美国经济和政策波动的影响。在巴基斯坦政治不稳定的背景下，美元债务不断增加、经常账户赤字和经济停滞，都引发了人们对去美元化可能产生的影响的担忧。去美元化过程包括使储备货币多样化和国际贸易使用替代货币。由于美国一再利用美元来对抗其对手，美国明显滥用权力，去美元化已经成为一种替代选择。作为世界上主要的储备货币，美元使得美国有能力对国家、实体和个人实施制裁。

　　Salman Ahmad Lali：Yes.Pakistan's economic vulnerability stems from its exposure to fluctuations in the US economy and policies. Escalating debts in dollars, a current account deficit, and economic stagnation in the context of political instability have prompted concerns over the possible impacts of de-dollarization. This process involves diversifying reserve currencies and employing alternative currencies for international trade. De-dollarization has gained traction due to perceived abuses of power by the US, which has repeatedly leveraged the dollar against its adversaries. As the world's primary reserve currency, the dollar empowers the US to impose sanctions on countries, entities, and individuals.

　　孙力舟：那么，去美元化有助于解决这些问题吗？

　　Sun Lizhou: Does de-dollarization help solve these problems?

　　萨尔曼·艾哈迈德·拉利: 去美元化可以通过维护巴基斯坦的经济独立和主权来培养巴基斯坦人的民族自豪感和团结意识，尽管这可能需要增加对其他主导货币的依赖，如人民币。然而，对这种变革的抵制可能会带来重大挑战，因为许多巴基斯坦公民已经习惯于投资美元，而且可能不愿采用替代货币。要在巴基斯坦克服这种阻力，可能需要开展全面的公共教育运动，以促进对本地货币的使用，并使人们熟悉本国货币组合多样化的好处。

　　Salman Ahmad Lali：De-dollarization could foster a sense of national pride and unity among Pakistanis by asserting the country's economic independence and sovereignty, even as it may require increased reliance on other dominant currencies, such as the Chinese yuan. However, resistance to change may pose a significant challenge, as many Pakistani citizens are accustomed to investing in US dollars and might be reluctant to adopt alternative currencies. Overcoming this resistance would likely necessitate a comprehensive public education campaign to promote the use of local currencies as well as familiarise the population with the benefits of diversifying their currency portfolio.

　　主持人：那么去美元化的主要障碍在哪里呢？

　　host: So where are the main obstacles to de-dollarization?

　　萨尔曼·艾哈迈德·拉利: 国际贸易是去美元化的主要障碍。因为美元是全球贸易的主要货币，许多国家都要求以美元支付。因此，减少巴基斯坦对美元的依赖可能会削弱其参与国际贸易的能力。

　　Salman Ahmad Lali：International trade presents major obstacle to de-dollarization. With the US dollar as the primary currency for global trade, numerous countries demand payment in dollars. Consequently, reducing Pakistan's reliance on the US dollar could hinder its ability to participate in international commerce.

　　主持人：去美元化的主要动力在哪里呢？

　　host: What are the main drivers of de-dollarization?

　　萨尔曼·艾哈迈德·拉利: 去美元化在一定程度上是由地区性投资者推动的。他们试图挑战美元的主导地位，缓解人们对全球贸易和金融体系的担忧。美元的霸权地位使美国能够对那些不符合其政策或从事被认为威胁到美国利益的活动的国家实施制裁。由于美国对伊朗和俄罗斯等潜在贸易伙伴的制裁，欧洲国家经历了经济停滞，这一问题也影响了多个中东和南亚国家。因此，许多国家已经转向去美元化，作为保护其经济免受美国政策和领导力的负面影响的一种手段。

　　Salman Ahmad Lali：The push for de-dollarization is driven, in part, by regional players who seek to challenge the US dollar's dominance and mitigate concerns over the global trading and financial system. The dollar's hegemony enables the US to impose sanctions on nations that do not align with its policies or engage in activities considered threatening to US interests. European countries have experienced economic stagnation due to US sanctions on potential trading partners like Iran and Russia, a problem that has also affected various Middle Eastern and South Asian nations. As a result, many have turned to de-dollarization as a means of shielding their economies from the negative impacts of US policy and leadership.

　　孙力舟：如果我们追溯历史，我们会发现美元的世界金融霸权地位起源于布雷顿森林体系。但是美国不负责任的金融政策导致了体系的瓦解。

　　Sun Lizhou:If we go back in history, we will find that the world financial hegemony of the dollar originated in the Bretton Woods system. But America's irresponsible financial policies led to the collapse of the system.

　　萨尔曼·艾哈迈德·拉利: 人们对布雷顿森林体系的不满进一步推动了去美元化运动。布雷顿森林体系在1944年将美元指定为世界储备货币，在这一体系下，其他国家将本国货币与美元挂钩，而美元又与黄金价格挂钩。然而，1971年，由于美国放弃了用美元兑换黄金的承诺，该体系崩溃了，随后产生了现在的货币体系。批评人士认为，布雷顿森林体系不公平地偏向美国，许多国家现在正在寻找替代方案，以解决它造成的失衡。

　　Salman Ahmad Lali：Discontent with the Bretton Woods system, which designated the US dollar as the world's reserve currency in 1944, has further fueled the de-dollarization movement. Under this system, other countries pegged their currencies to the dollar, which was in turn tied to the price of gold. However, the system collapsed in 1971 when the US abandoned its commitment to exchange dollars for gold, leading to the present system of fiat currencies. Critics argue that the Bretton Woods system unfairly favoured the US, and many nations are now seeking alternatives that address the imbalances it created.

　　主持人：其实，美联储超量印钞之后，美元购买力下降很快；为应对通胀，美联储又激进加息，未来不排除出现美国带着全球经济衰退，甚至发生经济危机的可能性，在这种预期下，一些国家出于慎重，调整货币储备多元化，也是可以理解的。

　　Host: In fact, after the Fed printed more money, the purchasing power of the dollar fell very quickly; In order to deal with inflation, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates aggressively, and the possibility of a global economic recession or even an economic crisis cannot be ruled out in the future. Under such expectations, it is understandable that some countries prudently adjust the diversification of their currency reserves.

　　孙力舟：主持人的这个看法是对的，我也是这么看的。那么巴基斯坦应该如何应对去美元化趋势？

　　Sun Lizhou: The host is right about this, and I see it the same way.So how should Pakistan respond to the de dollarization trend?

　　萨尔曼·艾哈迈德·拉利: 去美元化为巴基斯坦带来了机遇和挑战。虽然减少对美元的依赖可以增强国家主权，有利于国民心理，但它也可能面临对变革的阻力和国际贸易的壁垒等障碍。随着全球去美元化趋势增强，巴基斯坦必须评估其选择，并为美元可能不再主导全球经济格局的未来做好准备。

　　Salman Ahmad Lali：De-dollarization offers both opportunities and challenges for Pakistan. While reducing dependence on the US dollar could bolster national sovereignty and promote psychological benefits, it may also face hurdles such as resistance to change and barriers to international trade. As the global trend toward de-dollarization gains momentum, it is crucial for Pakistan to evaluate its options and prepare for a future where the US dollar may no longer dominate the global economic landscape.

　　孙力舟：回头看，美元是通过取代英镑之后，才获得世界货币地位的。那么美元也同样会被其它货币取代，这个过程也许比较长，去美元化，使得国际货币规则得以改变，有可能出现去中心化的一种货币。

　　Sun Lizhou: Looking back, the dollar gained its status as a world currency by replacing the pound. Then the dollar will also be replaced by other currencies, which may take a long time. Dedollarization will change the international monetary rules, and it is possible to emerge a decentralized currency.

　　萨尔曼·艾哈迈德·拉利:这个过程已经开始，已经对世界上一些国家，包括对亚洲国家产生了持续的影响。巴基斯坦所面临的问题和困难，既有自身的原因，也有国际的原因，其中受到美元大幅波动的因素影响，是免不了的，但是在中国的帮助下，有些问题会得到一定程度的解决。

　　Salman Ahmad Lali：This process has already begun, and it has already had an ongoing impact on some countries in the world, including in Asia. The problems and difficulties faced by Pakistan have both internal and international causes, among which it is inevitably affected by the drastic fluctuations of the US dollar. However, with the help of China, some problems will be solved to a certain extent.

　　孙力舟：我觉得，从货币多元化的趋势之中，去美元化是个必然的选择。巴基斯坦也在这个趋势之中，就如我们前面所说的，南亚国家包括印度在内做出的选择无非是一个明智的选择。

　　Sun Lizhou: I think, from the trend of currency diversification, de-dollarization is an inevitable choice. Pakistan is part of this trend and as we said before, the choice made by South Asian countries including India is nothing but a wise one.

　　主持人：感谢对话者分享的事实与观点。希望巴基斯坦经济早日好转。

　　host:Thank you for sharing facts and opinions. We hope that Pakistan's economy will improve soon.

　　本文为巴基斯坦记者萨尔曼·艾哈迈德·拉利、西南政法大学教师孙力舟博士二人谈《巴基斯坦与去美元化：前景与危机》。主持人为四川师范大学华西边疆研究所安高乐副教授。特此推出以飨读者！

　　This article is written bySalman Ahmad Lali, a journalist hailing from Pakistan、Sun Lizhou,ateacherfromSouthwest University of Political Science and Law,aboutAConversation betweenTwoPeoplePakistan & De-dollarization: Prospects and Crisis.The host of this issueisassociateprofessorAn Gaole at the Institute of West China Frontier Studies, Sichuan Normal University.It is hereby launched to entertain readers!