Pakistan & De-dollarization: Navigating the Economic Landscape
Salman Ahmad Lali，translation: Sun Lizhou
【巴基斯坦】萨尔曼·艾哈迈德·拉利，
键睿智库高级研究员 孙力舟 译
The year-long conflict between Russia and Ukraine has resulted in significant shifts in the economic,
俄罗斯和乌克兰之间长达一年的冲突导致了经济、地缘政治和文化领域的重大变化。一个值得注意的结果是推动多极化的进程，这是一个将全球经济力量重新分配给多个发达经济体的过程，而不是将其集中在一个霸权国家——美国的手中。因此，去美元化已成为一种全球趋势，从印度到阿根廷、从巴西到南非、从中东到东南亚的国家都在努力尽量减少它们对美元的依赖。巴基斯坦在国际贸易、偿还债务和外国投资方面严重依赖美元，它可能从这一趋势中受益。然而，去美元化也带来了一些必须小心处理的挑战。
Pakistan's economic vulnerability stems from its exposure to fluctuations in the US economy and policies. Escalating debts in dollars, a current account deficit, and economic stagnation in the context of political instability have prompted concerns over the possible impacts of de-dollarization. This process involves diversifying reserve currencies and employing alternative currencies for international trade. De-dollarization has gained traction due to perceived abuses of power by the US, which has repeatedly leveraged the dollar against its adversaries. As the world's primary reserve currency, the dollar empowers the US to impose sanctions on countries, entities, and individuals.
巴基斯坦的经济脆弱性源于其受到美国经济和政策波动的影响。在巴基斯坦政治不稳定的背景下，美元债务不断增加、经常账户赤字和经济停滞，都引发了人们对去美元化可能产生的影响的担忧。去美元化过程包括使储备货币多样化和国际贸易使用替代货币。由于美国一再利用美元来对抗其对手，美国明显滥用权力，去美元化已经获得吸引力。作为世界上主要的储备货币，美元使得美国有能力对国家、实体和个人实施制裁。
De-dollarization could foster a sense of national pride and unity among Pakistanis by asserting the country's economic independence and sovereignty, even as it may require increased reliance on other dominant currencies, such as the Chinese yuan. However, resistance to change may pose a significant challenge, as many Pakistani citizens are accustomed to investing in US dollars and might be reluctant to adopt alternative currencies. Overcoming this resistance would likely necessitate a comprehensive public education campaign to promote the use of local currencies as well as familiarise the population with the benefits of diversifying their currency portfolio.
去美元化可以通过维护巴基斯坦的经济独立和主权来培养巴基斯坦人的民族自豪感和团结意识，尽管这可能需要增加对其他主导货币的依赖，如人民币。然而，对这种变革的抵制可能会带来重大挑战，因为许多巴基斯坦公民已经习惯于投资美元，而且可能不愿采用替代货币。要在巴基斯坦克服这种阻力，可能需要开展全面的公共教育运动，以促进对本地货币的使用，并使人们熟悉本国货币组合多样化的好处。
International trade presents another major obstacle to de-dollarization. With the US dollar as the primary currency for global trade, numerous countries demand payment in dollars. Consequently, reducing Pakistan's reliance on the US dollar could hinder its ability to participate in international commerce.
国际贸易是去美元化的另一个主要障碍。因为美元是全球贸易的主要货币，许多国家都要求以美元支付。因此，减少巴基斯坦对美元的依赖可能会削弱其参与国际贸易的能力。
The push for de-dollarization is driven, in part, by regional players who seek to challenge the US dollar's dominance and mitigate concerns over the global trading and financial system. The dollar's hegemony enables the US to impose sanctions on nations that do not align with its policies or engage in activities considered threatening to US interests. European countries have experienced economic stagnation due to US sanctions on potential trading partners like Iran and Russia, a problem that has also affected various Middle Eastern and South Asian nations. As a result, many have turned to de-dollarization as a means of shielding their economies from the negative impacts of US policy and leadership.
去美元化在一定程度上是由地区性投资者推动的。他们试图挑战美元的主导地位，缓解人们对全球贸易和金融体系的担忧。美元的霸权地位使美国能够对那些不符合其政策或从事被认为威胁到美国利益的活动的国家实施制裁。由于美国对伊朗和俄罗斯等潜在贸易伙伴的制裁，欧洲国家经历了经济停滞，这一问题也影响了多个中东和南亚国家。因此，许多国家已经转向去美元化，作为保护其经济免受美国政策和领导力的负面影响的一种手段。
Discontent with the Bretton Woods system, which designated the US dollar as the world's reserve currency in 1944, has further fueled the de-dollarization movement. Under this system, other countries pegged their currencies to the dollar, which was in turn tied to the price of gold. However, the system collapsed in 1971 when the US abandoned its commitment to exchange dollars for gold, leading to the present system of fiat currencies. Critics argue that the Bretton Woods system unfairly favoured the US, and many nations are now seeking alternatives that address the imbalances it created.
人们对布雷顿森林体系的不满进一步推动了去美元化运动。布雷顿森林体系在1944年将美元指定为世界储备货币，在这一体系下，其他国家将本国货币与美元挂钩，而美元又与黄金价格挂钩。然而，1971年，由于美国放弃了用美元兑换黄金的承诺，该体系崩溃了，随后产生了现在的货币体系。批评人士认为，布雷顿森林体系不公平地偏向美国，许多国家现在正在寻找替代方案，以解决它造成的失衡。
De-dollarization offers both opportunities and challenges for Pakistan. While reducing dependence on the US dollar could bolster national sovereignty and promote psychological benefits, it may also face hurdles such as resistance to change and barriers to international trade. As the global trend toward de-dollarization gains momentum, it is crucial for Pakistan to evaluate its options and prepare for a future where the US dollar may no longer dominate the global economic landscape.
去美元化为巴基斯坦带来了机遇和挑战。虽然减少对美元的依赖可以增强国家主权，有利于国民心理，但它也可能面临对变革的阻力和国际贸易的壁垒等障碍。随着全球去美元化趋势增强，巴基斯坦必须评估其选择，并为美元可能不再主导全球经济格局的未来做好准备。
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