读书

Host (English): Welcome to the program! We’re thrilled to have former U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen with us for an exclusive interview. She served as Treasury Secretary from 2021 until earlier this year and was the Federal Reserve Chair from 2014 to 2018—the first woman to hold both roles. Secretary Yellen, thank you so much for joining us!
主持人 (中文)：欢迎来到节目！我们非常荣幸请到前美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦接受独家专访。她于2021年至今年早些时候担任财政部长，此前还从2014年到2018年担任美联储主席，是首位担任这两个职位的女性。耶伦部长，感谢您加入我们！

Yellen (English): Thank you for having me. It’s great to be here.
耶伦 (中文)：谢谢邀请，很高兴来到这里。

Host (English): There’s been a collective sigh of relief with the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, though the 10% general tariff remains. Still, there’s so much uncertainty about what’s next. The Economist’s headline today reads, “Trump’s incoherent trade policy will do lasting damage even after his backtracking,” claiming he’s done profound harm to the world economy. Do you agree?
主持人 (中文)：最近特朗普政府宣布暂停90天的对等关税，但10%的普遍关税仍在，人们松了一口气，但未来仍充满不确定性。《经济学人》今日头条称，“特朗普不连贯的贸易政策即使在他退缩后也会造成持久损害”，认为他对全球经济造成了深远伤害。您同意这个评估吗？

Yellen (English): I completely agree. The pause on tariffs affecting over 180 countries was a relief, but even if they’re never implemented, the U.S. and global economies have already faced a massive protectionist shock. We have near-prohibitive tariffs on China, a key import source, substantial tariffs on Canada and Mexico’s auto sectors, and a 10% tariff on most countries. Economists estimate average tariffs are now 20-25%, up from 2% at the start of Trump’s administration—the highest since 1934. This will raise costs for American households, with one estimate suggesting a $4,000 hit per family. It’s a significant blow to prices and the broader economy.
耶伦 (中文)：我完全同意。暂停影响超过180个国家的对等关税令人松了一口气，但即便这些关税不生效，美国和全球经济已遭受巨大保护主义冲击。我们对中国的关税几乎是禁止性的，中国是重要进口来源；加拿大、墨西哥的汽车行业也面临高关税，还有对多数国家的10%普遍关税。经济学家估计，平均关税水平从特朗普政府初期的2%升至20-25%，是1934年以来最高。这将增加美国家庭成本，估计每户损失约4000美元，对物价和经济都是重大打击。

Host (English): A few months ago, Trump nominated some controversial figures for key cabinet roles, but when Scott Bessent was named Treasury Secretary, Wall Street seemed relieved, thinking, “Finally, a grown-up in the room.” Now your successor is trying to convince Americans a global trade war would benefit Main Street. What advice do you have for him?
主持人 (中文)：几个月前，特朗普提名了一些有争议的人选担任关键内阁职位，但当斯科特·贝森特被提名为财政部长时，华尔街似乎松了一口气，认为“终于有了一个成熟的人选”。现在您的继任者试图说服美国人全球贸易战对普通民众有益。您对他有什么建议？

Yellen (English): My advice to my successor and other economic officials is to clearly explain to the president why these policies harm the American economy, workers, and households—not to mention the global impact. Economists broadly agree on this, as that Economist headline reflects. They need to ensure the president understands the market risks and why these policies are dangerous. There should be a coherent public message about the rationale for tariffs and how they achieve stated goals, but we haven’t seen that. I hope my successor is giving sound advice behind closed doors, even if publicly supporting Trump’s approach.
耶伦 (中文)：我建议我的继任者和其他经济官员向总统清楚解释这些政策为何损害美国经济、工人和家庭，更不用说全球影响。经济学家对此广泛认同，正如《经济学人》头条所示。他们需确保总统了解市场风险及这些政策的危险性。应该有连贯的公开信息说明关税的理由及如何实现目标，但我们还没看到这些。我希望我的继任者在私下给出合理建议，即便公开支持特朗普的做法。

Host (English): Normally in a crisis, investors flock to U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven, driving yields down. That didn’t happen this time—yields rose instead. Reports suggest this influenced Trump’s tariff pause. Why do you think foreign investors are losing faith in U.S. credibility?
主持人 (中文)：通常在危机中，投资者会涌向美国国债这样的避险资产，推低收益率，但这次收益率反而上升。据报道，这可能是特朗普暂停关税的原因之一。您认为外国投资者为何对美国的信誉失去信心？

Yellen (English): Investors are asking tough questions about the credibility of U.S. policy and our role in the global economy—whether we’ll have predictable policies and remain a positive force. Typically, high uncertainty pushes yields down as people buy Treasuries, the classic safe-haven asset, and the dollar weakens. But we saw yields rise, with downward pressure on the dollar and bond prices, suggesting investors doubt Treasuries’ safety. This led highly leveraged hedge funds to sell their Treasury holdings, risking financial instability. I understand this was a factor in Trump’s decision to pause tariffs, and it’s certainly a concern.
耶伦 (中文)：投资者在质疑美国政策的信誉及我们在全球经济中的角色——我们是否会有可预测的政策，是否仍是积极力量。通常高不确定性会推低国债收益率，因为人们购买国债这一典型避险资产，美元也会走弱。但我们看到收益率上升，美元和债券价格承压，表明投资者怀疑国债的安全性。这导致高杠杆对冲基金抛售国债，增加金融不稳定风险。我认为这是特朗普暂停关税的一个因素，确实值得关注。

Host (English): Let’s talk about another successor, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in 2026. In Trump’s first term, he tried nominating controversial figures like Stephen Moore and Judith Shelton to the Fed’s Board, but failed. How concerned are you if he succeeds with similar picks this time?
主持人 (中文)：让我们谈谈另一位继任者，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔，他的任期将在2026年结束。特朗普首个任期曾试图提名斯蒂芬·摩尔和朱迪丝·谢尔顿等争议性人选进入美联储理事会，但失败了。如果他这次成功提名类似人选，您有多担心？

Yellen (English): I’m very concerned. The Fed is a pillar of stability in economic policymaking, valuing its independence and focusing on price stability and maximum employment. Powell has done an excellent job leading it. Trump’s past nominees had ideas I’d call dangerous and far from mainstream. The Fed’s committee thrives on expertise, and the chair doesn’t dictate policy—they must persuade others. If Trump replaced Powell with someone holding non-mainstream views, I doubt they could effectively lead the committee, risking instability.
耶伦 (中文)：我非常担心。美联储是经济政策稳定的支柱，重视独立性，专注于价格稳定和最大就业。鲍威尔领导得非常出色。特朗普过去的提名人持有我认为危险且非主流的想法。美联储委员会依赖专业知识，主席不能独断政策，需说服其他成员。如果特朗普用持非主流观点的人替换鲍威尔，我怀疑此人能否有效领导委员会，可能会引发不稳定。

Host (English): What would be the consequences if a controversial pick became Fed Chair?
主持人 (中文)：如果一个争议性人选成为美联储主席，会有什么后果？

Yellen (English): It could make the Fed’s actions less predictable and harder for markets to understand. Right now, markets grasp how the Fed responds to data, with a clear commitment to price stability free of political influence. That fosters market stability. A chair with extreme views could disrupt this, undermining confidence and performance in markets.
耶伦 (中文)：这可能使美联储的行动更不可预测，市场难以理解。目前市场了解美联储如何应对数据，其对价格稳定的承诺清晰且不受政治影响，这促进了市场稳定。持极端观点的主席可能破坏这一点，削弱市场信心和表现。

Host (English): This administration has been scathing about how you and your Biden administration colleagues handled the economy, claiming Biden left a mess with high inflation and no job growth for American workers. Here’s a clip of their comments:
[Plays clip: Trump says Biden left massive inflation, high costs, and an economy in freefall, with zero job growth for American workers, calling it a depression.]
How do you respond to that?
主持人 (中文)：本届政府对您和拜登政府同事处理经济的方式评价极其苛刻，称拜登留下了高通胀和美国工人就业增长为零的烂摊子。以下是他们的评论片段：
[播放片段：特朗普称拜登留下巨大通胀、高成本、经济自由落体，美国工人无就业增长，称之为萧条。]
您对此有何回应？

Yellen (English): The Economist called the U.S. economy the envy of the world. Trump inherited a strong economy with robust growth, low unemployment, and impressive job creation—the opposite of what that clip claims. Inflation, while not yet at the Fed’s 2% target, was coming down significantly. This morning’s CPI report, with no tariff effects yet, showed inflation nearing 2%. It was a well-functioning economy, and Trump’s policies have hit it like a wrecking ball.
耶伦 (中文)：《经济学人》称美国经济为世界羡慕的对象。特朗普继承了一个增长强劲、失业率低、就业创造亮眼的经济，与片段所述完全相反。通胀虽未达美联储2%目标，但已显著下降。今天早上的CPI报告尚未反映关税影响，显示通胀接近2%。这是一个运作良好的经济，但特朗普的政策像挥舞破坏球重创了它。

Host (English): You’re back to being a professor now. How would you grade the Trump administration’s handling of the economy so far?
主持人 (中文)：您现在回到教授身份。如果给特朗普政府至今的经济表现打分，您会给多少？

Yellen (English): I’m afraid I couldn’t give it a passing grade. It’s the worst self-inflicted wound I’ve seen an administration impose on a healthy economy. Tariffs could cost households up to $4,000 a year. Cuts to services—veterans’ programs, Social Security, the IRS, Medicaid, food stamps—hurt working families, all to fund tax cuts mainly for the wealthy. This administration calls itself worker-focused, but I can’t imagine a more devastating agenda, from tariffs to deficits to slashing services.
耶伦 (中文)：恐怕我无法给及格分。这是我见过一个政府对健康经济施加的最严重的自残。关税可能使每户家庭损失高达4000美元。削减服务——退伍军人项目、社会保障、税务局、医疗补助、食品券——伤害工薪家庭，全为资助主要惠及富人的减税。这政府自称以工人为中心，但我想象不出更具破坏性的议程，从关税到赤字到削减服务。

Host (English): Do you think Trump’s policies are raising the risk of a recession?
主持人 (中文)：您认为特朗普的政策会增加衰退风险吗？

Yellen (English): Absolutely, the risk has risen. Tariffs and uncertainty are curbing consumer spending and investment. The prohibitive tariffs on China will hit the U.S. and global economies hard. Trump says he wants manufacturing jobs, but what firm invests long-term in this uncertainty? Declines in investment and consumer spending could easily trigger a recession. I won’t predict one, but I’m deeply concerned.
耶伦 (中文)：绝对的，风险已上升。关税和不确定性抑制消费和投资。对中国的禁止性关税将重创美国和全球经济。特朗普说要创造制造业就业，但这种不确定性下哪家公司敢长期投资？投资和消费下降可能轻易引发衰退。我不预测一定会有，但非常担心。

Host (English): What a difference three months make. When you left office, the U.S. economy was strong and resilient, despite inflationary pressures. Now, bond yields are up, the S&P and Dow are in correction territory, companies like Walmart and Delta won’t issue guidance, and JPMorgan says there’s a 60% chance of recession, with Goldman Sachs at 45%. Your thoughts?
主持人 (中文)：三个月变化巨大。您离开时，美国经济强劲有弹性，尽管有通胀压力。现在债券收益率上升，标普和道琼斯进入修正区间，沃尔玛、达美航空等公司拒绝发布指引，摩根大通称衰退概率达60%，高盛称45%。您怎么看？

Yellen (English): It shows the damage of policy uncertainty. A strong economy is being undermined by unnecessary shocks. Businesses are losing confidence, markets are volatile, and recession risks are climbing fast.
耶伦 (中文)：这显示了政策不确定性的破坏。强劲的经济正被不必要的冲击削弱，企业失去信心，市场波动，衰退风险快速上升。

Host (English): Secretary Yellen, thank you so much for joining us. It’s been an honor. Please come back!
主持人 (中文)：耶伦部长，非常感谢您今天加入我们！非常荣幸，请一定要再来！

Yellen (English): Thank you for having me. I’d be happy to return.
耶伦 (中文)：谢谢邀请，很高兴能来。